AI can help tackle India's counterfeiting crisis

India's counterfeit economy, spanning apparel, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) and pharmaceuticals, continues to grow at pace, placing mounting pressure on packaging as both a line of defence and an unwitting vehicle for fraud. New data suggests that a third of consumers in Indian cities have purchased or encountered a counterfeit product within the last 12 months, underscoring the scale of a problem that is now firmly on the radar of brand owners, converters and regulators.

Coordinated enforcement action at the national level is intensifying, but industry stakeholders are increasingly looking beyond policing towards technology-led solutions, and packaging sits at the heart of that conversation. QR codes and serialisation on pack have significantly raised the authentication bar, enabling consumers and inspectors to verify product legitimacy at the point of purchase. However, the same digital infrastructure that makes authentication more accessible has also made distribution of counterfeits easier, with eCommerce platforms providing fraudsters with near-frictionless access to end consumers.

Artificial intelligence (AI) is emerging as a critical tool in closing that gap. By analysing product details, supply chain data and live market information, AI platforms can now flag suspicious activity far earlier in the chain, identifying imperceptible physical variations in packaging, detecting anomalous pricing or volume patterns, and scanning for misleading or inconsistent marketing claims across digital channels. For packaging service providers and brand protection teams, this represents a significant shift from reactive to predictive anti-counterfeiting.

The economics of fake goods are ultimately driven by the margin between the price of a legitimate product and the cost of producing a convincing imitation.

Counterfeit supply chains must, however, evolve alongside the genuine market to maintain profitability; as manufacturing quality and economic development advance, the cost and complexity of producing convincing fakes typically rises. India's manufacturing base, still maturing in many sectors, means law enforcement and brand owners continue to carry a disproportionate share of that burden.

Corporate anti-counterfeiting strategies now routinely encompass both production and distribution channels. Distribution networks are considered a particular vulnerability, goods in transit, at wholesale or in informal retail environments are all points at which fake products can be introduced. This dynamic favours larger brands with tightly managed, structured supply chains, while smaller enterprises tend to have less control and greater exposure, making regulatory recourse their primary tool.

Industry observers note that no single solution is sufficient. Packaging-based authentication, whether through overt features such as holograms and QR codes, or covert measures embedded in inks and substrates, must be supported by robust digital verification infrastructure and cross-sector collaboration with regulators. A coordinated response spanning brand owners, converters, technology suppliers and enforcement agencies is considered essential if the integrity of packaging as a trust signal to consumers is to be maintained.