India to remain import-dependent for PVC despite capacity additions, says DCM Shriram

India faces an ongoing 35% shortfall in domestic PVC production by 2030, leaving the sector vulnerable to global supply chain disruptions and predatory pricing from China. Mehta noted that while Reliance and Adani planned to commission new capacities in 2027-28, total domestic capacity will likely reach only 3.7-million tonnes against a 6-million tonne demand. This leaves a gap of 2.1-million tonnes that must be filled through imports.

The industry enables 29% of India's GDP through its structural role in agriculture, infrastructure, and healthcare. Mehta said that per capita consumption in India is currently 3-kg, which is significantly lower than China's 16.5-kg or advanced economies that exceed 10-kg. He added the market share of PVC films and sheets in India is just 3%, while globally, it’s 17%.

To put things in perspective, the Indian plastics industry is valued at USD 26.61-billion in 2025 and is projected to grow to USD 44.59-billion by 2030, growing at a CAGR of 10.9%. The government has set an ambitious target to increase the industry’s turnover to INR 10-lakh crore (USD 126-billion) within the next four to five years (by 2027-28).

Mehta pointed out that there are currently 30,000 to 50,000 processing units operating in India. The vast majority of these units are micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The sector currently employs over five million people, with a roadmap to reach 10 million jobs as the turnover hits the INR 10-lakh crore mark.

He expressed concern regarding the surge of imports from China, which now constitutes 50% of India's total PVC imports following the expiry of anti-dumping duties in February 2022. He reported that oversupply in China created extreme pressure on the Indian industry. Furthermore, Mehta noted that BIS regulations regarding lead content have not been strictly enforced on imports, allowing unregulated entry of unsafe materials into the country.

The industry also faced volatility due to geopolitical tensions impacting feedstock and energy costs. Mehta stated that prices for coal and carbon materials increased, while feedstock availability remained challenging. He emphasised that building domestic capacity is the only way to insulate the supply chain from global disruptions. Mehta concluded that while new expansions are occurring after a long period, import dependence will continue beyond 2030.