Smithers charts the global PCR market to 2031

Smithers latest report, the Future of PCR Packaging to 2031, authored by Philippa Davies, states that post-consumer recycled (PCR) plastic use in packaging is growing but is failing to keep up with legislative targets, including the EU’s Packaging and Packaging Waste Regulation (PPWR) and Single-Use Plastics Directive (SUPD) requirements. The report states that extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes in Asia and North America are delivering limited progress as well.

The study reports the global growth stands at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.7% in volume, with food and drinks accounting for the largest share. Additionally, PET holds the majority market share at 65%.

The core problem, the report identifies, is a self-reinforcing cycle. For instance, PCR costs around a third more than virgin plastic, suppressing demand and discouraging investment in recycling infrastructure, which in turn keeps recyclate scarce and prices high. Shifting political attitudes in the US are adding further uncertainty, Davies identifies.

According to the report, breaking this cycle will require a coordinated push across several fronts. This includes modernising mechanical recycling with AI and robotics, expanding chemical recycling for hard-to-recycle plastics, harmonising EPR reporting rules, scaling up Deposit Return Systems, promoting closed-loop recycling, and tackling contamination issues.

A corresponding market report by Smithers, PCR Packaging: A Market Outlook, predicts that while market growth has underperformed earlier forecasts (driven by poor economics for recyclates that have triggered closures of recycling plants and materials recovery facilities), a return to stronger growth is expected from 2028 onwards. 

The report gives plastics producers, recyclers, brand owners, retailers and policymakers the intelligence they need to identify growth opportunities, navigate evolving legislation, and future-proof their strategies before the 2030 deadlines arrive.

It breaks down why PCR plastic adoption is falling short of 2030 targets, in addition to what is driving the gap between current growth rates and legislative requirements across Europe, North America, and Asia. Additionally, Davies identifies viable technological solutions that can break the cycle of high costs, weak demand, and insufficient recyclate supply, while pointing to how businesses and policymakers can navigate the growing complexity of EPR legislation, shifting political attitudes, and compliance challenges.

Source: Smithers