The chromium deadline: Navigating the packaging industry’s storm

Such volatility underscores the desperate need for localised, robust supply chains, a goal the MCMA has long championed in its historical struggle against the BIS Quality Control Order (QCO), which has created a 2,50,000-tonne demand-supply gap in tinplate.

The global metal packaging market is a USD 148.13-billion behemoth, projected to grow at a steady 3.7% CAGR to reach USD 184.21-billion by 2030. But this predictable growth belies a structural upheaval driven by two forces: Rigid European regulatory mandates and volatile geopolitics. For an industry that underpins global food and beverage supply chains, managing these risks is no longer a matter of future strategy—it is an immediate operational imperative.

The most pressing systemic challenge is regulatory compliance. Hexavalent chromium substances, used globally to control tin oxide growth on tinplate, have been classified as Substances of Very High Concern (SVHC) and included in the REACH Annex XIV (Authorisation list). This means the continued use of these substances in the EU/EEA and the UK is subject to a hard deadline. By the end of 2027, their use in tinplate passivation must cease completely.

The industry's response, spearheaded by Steel for Packaging Europe members, is the Chromium-Free Passivation Alternative (CFPA). This 100% chromium-free system is designed to stabilise the tin oxide layer in a way equivalent to the current global process, ensuring product performance and functionality. The urgency for can-makers to transition is absolute: "The time to act is now". This shift is critical not only for compliance but also for sustainability, as steel packaging remains the most recycled packaging material in Europe, boasting an 80.5% real recycling rate.

Simultaneously, the industry is grappling with material dynamics and safety protocols. Aluminium, praised for its lightweight and corrosion-resistant properties, dominates the market with a 66.18% revenue share in 2024 and is projected to grow at the fastest CAGR of 4.1%. Meanwhile, the packaging landscape is being rapidly transformed by consumer demand for sustainability, with 43% of consumers actively choosing recyclable products, fueling a significant shift toward paper-based packaging, particularly driven by GenZ and Millennials.

Furthermore, the materials used require extreme diligence. Solvent-borne can coatings, essential for providing a protective layer between the metal substrate and the contents, are classified as hazardous goods. They are often flammable, and their fumes can form explosive mixtures. Strict adherence to UN classifications for transportation and precise storage conditions (between 5–30 °C) is essential to prevent solvent evaporation or viscosity increase.

However, the internal challenges of regulation, material shifts, and safety compliance pale in comparison to the unpredictability of macro-economic shocks. As we approach the close of FY 25-26, the Middle East war is proving its ability to upset every business, even thousands of miles away. This geopolitical instability is manifesting directly in Indian business: travel has been hugely affected, fuel shortages are causing airfares to soar, and global stock markets are down.

Most critically, the conflict has impacted the transit of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. If the Strait remains restricted, oil prices will skyrocket, and businesses will suffer considerable losses. Beyond commodities, the extensive damage in the region, particularly due to Iran targeting neighbors like Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, threatens the jobs and livelihoods of thousands of Indians working in the Middle East.

At this juncture, the industry requires not just technological foresight but calm leadership. While our Prime Minister is rightly attempting diplomacy to secure the passage of oil tankers, industry leaders must focus on resilience and unity. We must hold onto the belief that dialogue will prevail, recalling Ronald Reagan’s sentiment: “Peace is not absence of conflict, it is the ability to handle conflict by peaceful means.” The packaging sector’s dual mandate—to comply with 2027 mandates while stabilising against global shocks—demands nothing less than this resolute focus.