Headwinds for packaging due to global pressures
High-interest macro headwinds and commodity controls are predicted to restrict consumer packaged goods volume growth, pressing packaging converters to recalibrate their material pipelines.
21 May 2026 | By Anand Singh
FMCG volumes in 2026 to be steady at 4-4.5%
Fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies face a challenging operating environment in 2026, with volume growth projected to remain "range-bound" at 4-4.5% if the geopolitical conflict in West Asia and corresponding energy volatility persist, according to the latest FMCG Pulse report from Worldpanel by Numerator (formerly Kantar).
The baseline projection assumes that crude oil prices, which recently topped USD 100 a barrel since the conflict began on 28 February, will remain elevated. The market research firm noted that 2026 opens with two distinct macro headwinds: energy-market volatility and early signs of below-normal rainfall. If elevated energy costs coincide with food inflation driven by weather stress, the outlook darkens, with volume growth potentially softening to 3-4%.
Conversely, the sector's volume growth could edge up towards 5% if energy prices stabilise closer to baseline assumptions of USD 80-85 per barrel of crude, and if monsoon outcomes do not deteriorate further.
The fragility of the sector’s outlook was underscored by recent market movements. The Indonesian government’s Wednesday move to impose controls on some commodity exports, a step expected to increase the price of palm oil, a key ingredient for items such as soaps, triggered a a slump in FMCG stocks.
Despite the macro pressures, the sector had a strong close to the March quarter, registering a value growth of 13.1% and a volume growth of 5.4%. Looking ahead, some segments are expected to be more structurally resilient.
Some key takeaways which WhatPackaging magazine has detected are household care, led by washing liquids and floor cleaners, is expected to stand out, continuing to see 4-5% volume growth. Also personal care is projected to remain robust, growing at around 3-5% in volume, driven by routine-extending categories like body wash and conditioners. Food categories may see volume growth led by Staples, but impulse food segments could face reduced frequency. Separately, bottled soft drinks could see 3-4% growth due to intense summer heat and lesser rainfall.